Bitcoin options worth approximately $2.7 billion expire Friday, before the US jobs report is released. Traders who rely on expiring puts for protection could be left without coverage when the payrolls data lands.
Bitcoin options worth approximately $2.7 billion expire Friday, five and a half hours before the US jobs report. The timing creates a potential gap for traders hedging against a sudden sell-off.
Deribit data shows 33,441 BTC in outstanding contracts set to expire at 08:00 UTC on Nov. 6, with a calculated maximum pain price of $79,000. That level sits approximately 1.6% below Bitcoin's $80,280 current price.
Calls outnumber puts nearly three to one
The contracts lean toward bullish calls, which account for approximately 25,012 BTC in open interest, against 8,429 BTC in puts. That puts the put-to-call ratio at 0.34.
Call positions cluster at the $82,000 and $85,000 strikes, while significant put positions sit between $72,000 and $75,000. However, the maximum pain level does not guarantee that Bitcoin will gravitate toward that price, and the $2.7 billion figure is the notional value of outstanding contracts, not money expected to enter or leave the market.
Puts expiring Friday miss the payrolls release
The Bureau of Labor Statistics will release October's employment report at 13:30 UTC on Nov. 6. Deribit's contracts settle using Bitcoin's average index price between 07:30 and 08:00 UTC, so any price reaction to the report falls outside their protection period.
Coverage through the announcement costs more. On Deribit's Nov. 5 order book, an $80,000 Bitcoin put expiring Nov. 6 carried an asking premium of approximately $393 per BTC of exposure, compared with $682 for the equivalent strike expiring Nov. 7. The latter was roughly 74% more expensive, although the difference also reflects its additional trading duration and other market-pricing factors.
What traders expect from the jobs data
Analysts at Bitunix said markets expect the economy to have added 65,000 jobs in October, with the unemployment rate unchanged at 4.2%. They argued that a stronger-than-expected report could reinforce concerns about persistent inflation, potentially pressuring Bitcoin through higher Treasury yields and a stronger dollar.
With October's inflation figures due Nov. 10, demand for longer-dated protection could remain sensitive to how sharply Friday's payrolls data changes market expectations.
Source: CryptoSlate
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