Bitwise's renewed call for a $1.3 million bitcoin price joins a long line of seven-figure forecasts, but a ratio measuring bitcoin against long-term Treasury yields tells a different story. That ratio just completed a bearish technical analysis breakdown, and rising bond yields undercut the opportunity-cost case for holding a non-yielding asset like bitcoin.
Asset manager Bitwise this month predicted bitcoin could reach $1.3 million within a decade, reviving a call that Coinbase's Brian Armstrong, Block's Jack Dorsey, and Ark Invest's Cathie Wood have all made before. But a closer look at bitcoin's price adjusted for the return on long-term government debt suggests the target sits further out of reach than the dollar chart implies.
Treasury yields raise the cost of holding bitcoin
Most seven-figure forecasts assume money will rotate out of gold or other multi-trillion-dollar pools of capital and into bitcoin, and likely without weighing what investors give up to hold it instead. The 30-year Treasury yield cleared 5% this year, its highest level since 2007, so every dollar sitting in bitcoin is a dollar not earning that yield.
A ratio that never confirmed the 2025 rally
Bitcoin's spot price rose to $126,000 in 2025, well above the previous cycle's high near $70,000. Yet priced against the 30-year yield, bitcoin fell short of its 2021 high — the first time that ratio failed to set a new peak during a bull run since bitcoin's inception.
Chart pattern flashes a bearish signal
That same ratio has now broken down through a multi-year support line, completing a head-and-shoulders top. According to Thomas Bulkowski's study of historical chart patterns, the pattern "meets its projected price target 51% of the time". The same research found the pattern carries a failure rate of just 19% and an average decline of 16% once confirmed, based on more than 2,800 historically tracked trades.
None of this rules out further gains for bitcoin's dollar price. But for seven-figure targets to materialize, the interest-rate backdrop likely needs to turn as supportive as it was in 2020-21. Right now, it's moving the other way.
Source: CoinDesk
Trading involves risk.
Risk Disclaimer
