Bitcoin's daily chart shows a bearish signal from the Guppy Multiple Moving Average indicator, and ETF outflows and options demand for downside protection add to the warning. Seasonality after the midterms leans positive, and the indicator has produced false signals before.
On bitcoin's daily chart, the price has dropped below both bundles of the Guppy Multiple Moving Average, and the short-term bundle has slipped below the long-term one. According to trader Daryl Guppy, that warns of a developing bearish shift in momentum.
The GMMA plots two bundles of moving averages, one using short periods and one using long periods. The short-term bundle represents what traders are thinking, while the long-term bundle shows investor sentiment.
Long-term bundle confirms the cross
A cross alone is not enough, because trader sentiment can turn quickly. The long-term bundle is now squeezing together and beginning to slope lower, which shows investors are settling on a price and no longer buying aggressively.
Traders and investors are therefore leaning the same way, which makes the bearish signal stronger.
Past signals, wins and losses
The indicator is not fully reliable on its own. A similar setup in late May was followed by a sharp crash to below $60,000 in the first week of June, and the crossover in late January paved the way for a drop from roughly $90,000 to around $62,000. But the signals in August and September 2025 failed, as prices quickly turned higher after the bearish confirmation.
ETF outflows and loss overhang add pressure
The latest bearish development comes alongside sharp ETF outflows and other signs of weakening US demand, as well as demand for downside protection in options. CoinDesk says this suggests traders are rushing for the exit or preparing for deeper price losses.
Separately, roughly $707 billion invested in Bitcoin was at a loss at press time, compared to $380 billion in profits. Analyst Darkfost says the market will take several months to put most of that capital back in profit.
Seasonality, however, is positive, and past data shows bitcoin tends to rally after the midterms. The $75K demand zone, which coincided with the short-term holder cost basis level, has emerged as a key support level for swing traders and long-term investors.
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