Bitcoin's daily golden cross confirmed briefly on Friday, then reversed after hotter-than-expected inflation data pushed rate-hike odds higher. BTC pulled back from an intraday high near $79,837 to trade around $77,438, while the shorter 4-hour chart kept its own golden cross intact.
Bitcoin's daily 50-day EMA dipped back below its 200-day EMA Friday evening, undoing a golden cross that had confirmed only hours earlier. BTC is trading around $77,438, still up 1.19% on the day but well off its earlier high near $79,837.
The reversal followed a hawkish repricing in rates markets. Today's CPI report showed the monthly core reading at 0.3%, hotter than the 0.2% analysts expected. Odds of a 25-basis-point hike at next week's Fed meeting per CME FedWatch have spiked to 86.5%, up from roughly 69% just after the data landed.
A rate hike would generally precede a risk-off move from investors, meaning risk assets like Bitcoin and tech stocks would take a hit if the Fed raises rates next week. Today's daily candle opened at $76,529, spiked to an intraday high of $79,837, then rolled over to a low of $76,040 before settling near $77,438.
Why a flickering golden cross isn't unusual
A golden cross forms when the 50-day moving average crosses above the 200-day one. It's a closely watched trend signal because it has historically preceded some of Bitcoin's larger rallies, but it's also a lagging indicator built from past prices. When the two averages sit close together, as they do now, the signal can toggle within a single session as intraday swings tug at the average — which is exactly what happened today, as the push to $79,837 nudged the 50-day EMA above the 200-day before the retreat pulled it back below.
Trend strength remains firm regardless of which side of the cross price lands on. The Average Directional Index reads at 45, comfortably above the 25 threshold that separates a real trend from noise. The Relative Strength Index sits at 55.5, still on the bullish side of neutral.
The 4-hour chart stays bullish, but tired
Unlike the daily, the 4-hour chart never lost its golden cross: the 50-period EMA remains above the 200-period EMA, keeping the bullish structure that first formed in late August intact. Yet momentum there has cooled. RSI on the 4-hour chart has dropped to 43.3, into bearish territory, and the Squeeze Momentum indicator just fired after days of compression, with volatility expanding 3.95% — typically a signal that a sharp move, in this case to the downside, is getting underway.
ADX on the 4-hour chart sits at 25.1, barely above the 25 threshold, showing the intraday trend is far weaker than the one on the daily chart. Still, the broader picture leans bullish: the 4-hour chart hasn't wavered since late August, and daily ADX at 45 confirms a real trend remains in place even as the moving-average label flips back and forth within a single volatile session.
Source: Decrypt
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