Analyst CryptoGoos has outlined a Bitcoin trading strategy built around US midterm elections, one that has flagged the asset's major cycle bottoms and tops for three consecutive cycles. Bitcoin fell more than 60% during each of the last three midterm election years, then rebounded by an average of over 50% in the following year. With 2026 also a midterm year, the pattern suggests a buy signal may be forming now.
Analyst CryptoGoos has outlined a Bitcoin strategy tied to US midterm elections that has flagged the asset's major cycle bottoms and tops across three consecutive cycles. Rather than lean on indicators, moving averages, or on-chain metrics, the approach tracks how Bitcoin behaves around each US midterm vote.
A rough pattern before every vote
Bitcoin was still an obscure "internet magic money" during the 2010 midterms, so the analysis starts with 2014, 2018, and 2022. In 2014, the asset was still reeling from the collapse of Mt. Gox and the end of the 2013 bull run. Four years later, Bitcoin plunged from almost $20,000 to under $3,500 during the 2018 bear market.
The 2022 cycle followed a similar script. Bitcoin sank into a downturn driven by aggressive Fed rate hikes, the deterioration of Terra/LUNA, and a broader credit crisis. Days after the November 8 midterm election, FTX imploded, dragging Bitcoin toward $16,000.
Declines north of 60% each cycle
Research from CryptoQuant found that Bitcoin declined by more than 60% during each of the three midterm election years. Given that 2026 is also a midterm election year, the parallel is hard to ignore. Bitcoin remains far below its October 2025 all-time high despite its most recent recovery.
Rebounds have averaged over 50%
But the pattern doesn't stop at the bottom. Data on the previous three cycles show Bitcoin has historically rebounded strongly in the 12 months following US midterm elections, with average subsequent gains above 50%. If the pattern repeats, the next major buy signal could be forming now.
Source: CryptoPotato
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