Bitcoin's on-chain data is echoing the setups that preceded its 2019 and 2023 recoveries, with short-term holders back at breakeven and ETF inflows hitting a record for the year. The pattern raises the odds of a run at $90,000, but stretched sentiment also lifts the risk of a pullback first.
Bitcoin's current rally is starting to resemble patterns seen during its previous bull runs. On the weekly chart, BTC's 7%+ rally has pushed the price back into the $85,000-$90,000 range seen earlier this year. More significantly, short-term holders — buyers who have held BTC for less than 150 days — are now back around their breakeven levels, meaning recent buyers are recovering their unrealized losses as the price moves higher.
Against this backdrop, a fresh wave of euphoria could trigger a local top. The latest reading of the Fear and Greed Index suggests BTC entered "extreme greed" on September 22 for the first time since the Q3 2025 cycle. That puts sentiment at a more stretched level than when BTC hit $126,000 in late September-early October 2025. A separate Santiment report points to similar signs of euphoria on-chain.
ETF demand hits a year-long record
Bitcoin ETF demand has surged, with $937.3 million in net inflows on September 21 — the largest single-day inflow since BTC's October 2025 peak and another record for the year. As Bitcoin trades near eight-month highs, ETF investors appear to be chasing the rally again, adding another layer of heat to the market. Short-term holders sitting at breakeven, an extreme-greed reading, and surging ETF demand together support the bullish trend, but they also raise the risk that BTC struggles to clear $90,000 in one move as the market heats up.
Leverage and the MVRV signal
Bitcoin's euphoria is not limited to ETF spot demand — it is also spilling into derivatives. According to CoinGlass, Bitcoin's 24-hour liquidation heatmap shows a large pool of long liquidity just above the current trading range, an accumulation of leverage as BTC approaches higher levels. That setup could result in a bull-trap should BTC fail to break above $90,000.
Historical setups add weight to the case. In both 2019 and 2023, Bitcoin's MVRV (Market Value over Realized Value) crossed back above its 365-day average following negative momentum, and both instances preceded a stronger recovery phase. The current crossover appears to show similar traits. As BTC moves above the average cost of recent buyers, selling pressure from underwater holders is expected to ease, which could keep FOMO among ETF investors high and trigger a short squeeze that traps late shorts and propels the rally further.
Source: AMBCrypto
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