Bitcoin's rally from under $65,000 to over $82,000 has stalled after bears rejected a break above the 365-day moving average. CryptoQuant says the setup remains constructive, but the asset must clear a stack of on-chain and technical resistance levels before a new bullish phase can be confirmed.
Bitcoin's recovery, which began in mid-August, carried the asset from under $65,000 to over $82,000 within a few weeks before running into a wall. CryptoQuant's weekly report says the overall setup remains constructive, but bitcoin now has to overcome a stack of technical and on-chain resistance levels sitting directly in front of it.
The 365-day average holds the line
CryptoQuant identified bitcoin's 365-day moving average, currently at $81,700, as the asset's most important level. Bitcoin briefly exceeded that moving average at the start of September, but bears stepped up and quickly rejected the move.
Historically, bull markets have "officially" begun once bitcoin closes above this moving average. A successful close above $81,700 could confirm a new bullish phase and open the door for another major leg up. However, continuous failure to break through could instead lead to a longer consolidation phase or even a deeper decline.
More resistance stacked above
Clearing $81,700 would not confirm the rally on its own, as CryptoQuant flagged additional obstacles further up. The 3x Metcalfe valuation band sits at $83,600 and stands as the next major resistance level, one that halted bitcoin in May and has previously coincided with important cycle turning points.
If that level gives way, one more band waits at $88,700, the trader realized-price upper band. History shows selling has intensified as bitcoin approaches this line, because active traders begin sitting on increasingly large unrealized profits.
A supply wall closer to spot
The most immediate problem sits much closer to current prices. CryptoQuant noted that long-term holders sold as much as 539,000 BTC between $77,100 and $80,200 throughout the year, creating what the analysts described as the heaviest nearby on-chain supply wall.
Source: CryptoPotato
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