Bitcoin is climbing toward the $82k resistance zone, but rising odds of a Fed rate hike and a volatile CPI report have introduced fresh short-term caution. A 13.6k BTC drop in open interest has reset leverage across the market, cutting the odds of a liquidation cascade and giving swing traders room to work.
Fed rate-hike odds cloud the short-term outlook
The probability of a 25-basis-point Federal Reserve rate hike to 375-400 bps climbed to 87.3%, according to the FedWatch tool, raising the odds of a bearish short-term Bitcoin reaction. In a CryptoQuant analysis, XWIN Japan said Bitcoin sat between persistent, long-term buyers and short-term caution. That caution could flip the short-term trend bearish again, especially if it blossoms into panic.
Bitcoin retraces into a key demand zone near $76k
Friday's U.S. CPI report triggered high short-term volatility and $685.5 million in liquidations across the crypto market that day. The past four trading days have seen outflows from Bitcoin spot ETFs. Binance BTC reserves sit at a two-year high, while the Coinbase Premium Index has slipped back into negative territory. Despite doubt among long-term holders, Bitcoin kept climbing toward the key $82k resistance, giving bulls some hope, though rising odds of a rate hike have hurt short-term bullish momentum.
Open interest reset lowers cascade risk
Crypto analyst Axel Adler Jr. said on X that Bitcoin's open interest fell by 13.6k BTC in a day. During that stretch, Bitcoin rallied from $77k to $79.9k before retracing most of those gains within a few hours. That liquidity flush and decline in open interest made a liquidation cascade less likely by wiping out over-leveraged traders near the current market price.
Signals that would confirm a bullish shift
Two signals could confirm a market regime shift: a return to positive Coinbase Premium Index values, signaling renewed investor interest, and a negative exchange net position change, signaling accumulation. Negative values in the second half of August accompanied the rally toward $82k, and sustained withdrawals from exchanges could accompany the next bullish leg as sell pressure eases.
Source: AMBCrypto
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