Bank of America’s technical strategists warn that gold’s 2026 correction may have much further to run, comparing the setup to the bear markets that followed the metal’s 1980 and 2011 peaks. The firm sees full allocation only once prices fall into the $3,450–$3,250 range.
Bank of America is telling clients not to buy gold in size yet. In a technical research note, strategists led by Paul Ciana argue that gold’s year-to-date correction could deepen toward $3,315 if 2026 turns out to be a secular peak like those of 1980 and 2011.
The bearish signals BofA is watching
The note stacks up several warning signs at once: a death cross formation, elevated net-long positioning, a peak candle, a TD Sequential exhaustion signal, and an RSI reading that hit 90 at the recent high — a level BofA says matches the major tops of 1980 and 2011.
Timing is the other worry. As Ciana’s team put it, according to Investing.com: “The current correction is only 24 weeks old versus the prior 121-week advance.” Even after breaching the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement at $4,149, the selloff looks too brief relative to the run that came before it.
How far the downside could go
Every one of the three gold bear markets since 1970 has retraced at least 50% of the prior advance, BofA notes. That history points to several potential targets: a 174-week lookback that flags $3,605, and a 50% Fibonacci retracement sitting near $3,702.
The path there may not be straight. Ciana sees room for a bounce first, writing that a rebound toward $4,325–$4,500 may precede a decline toward $3,702 — a countertrend rally that could look tempting before the next leg lower.
Miners already feeling it
The pressure is visible across the sector. Spot gold traded 1.9% lower at $3,983.64 per ounce as Middle East tensions revived inflation worries and uncertainty over US rate policy. Newmont and Barrick Mining fell 1.8% and 1.4%, while Kinross Gold dropped roughly 2%.
Rather than avoid the metal, BofA favors staged buying. The firm wants only modest accumulation below $4,000, building the position through the $3,700–$3,600 area and reaching full allocation between $3,450 and $3,250.
Sources: Investing.com, Moomoo
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