Brent crude jumped 5.6% to $106.83 a barrel on Thursday, its highest since May 19, after U.S. Central Command said it destroyed five Iranian oil tankers this week. The move landed alongside a U.S. producer price report, and traders pushed the odds of a Federal Reserve rate increase next week to 64%.
Brent crude traded at $106.83 a barrel on Thursday afternoon, up 5.6% on the day and its highest level since May 19. The contract has risen 11.7% since Sept. 2, when it settled at $95.63.
Five Tankers Behind The Spike
U.S. Central Command said on Sept. 8 that its forces "destroyed five Iranian crude oil carriers" after the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps targeted a U.S. Navy warship with ballistic missiles twice over the past two days, according to the command's public release. The release names the M/T Kaviz, M/T Charminar, M/T Horizon 1, M/T Riesco and M/T Derya, placing four of the strikes in the Gulf of Oman and one near Kharg Island, and says crews were directed to abandon ship before the vessels were hit. It does not mention the Strait of Hormuz. A Sept. 5 release describes three earlier tanker strikes.
The U.S. Maritime Administration published advisory 2026-011 on Sept. 9, stating that Iran continues to threaten and conduct strikes on commercial vessels transiting the Persian Gulf, the Strait of Hormuz and the Gulf of Oman. The advisory replaced 2026-004, which expired the same day, making it a scheduled six-month renewal rather than a response to this week's strikes.
Inventory Report Predates The Strikes
The Energy Information Administration's Weekly Petroleum Status Report for the week ending Sept. 4 was due to publish at 12 p.m. ET Thursday, delayed from Wednesday by the Sept. 7 federal holiday. The most recent report, for the week ending Aug. 28, had recorded commercial crude inventories down 4.5 million barrels to 424.5 million — a figure that predates both sets of tanker strikes.
Oil Feeds Into Rate Hike Odds
The Bureau of Labor Statistics reported that the Producer Price Index for final demand moved up 0.4% in August, against 0.1% in July and a 0.1% decline in June. Final demand prices rose 5.4% over 12 months, while core prices, excluding foods, energy and trade services, rose 0.3% on the month and 4.7% over the year.
Brent's advance sits underneath that inflation print. Traders raised the odds of a September quarter-point rate increase, with the contract at 52.5% at 8 a.m. ET and 63.5% by early afternoon; the headline figure put the broader odds of an increase at 64%. The 10-year Treasury yield reached 4.92% on Thursday, its highest since Oct. 25, 2023, and the 30-year reached 5.34%, above every daily close of the past five years.
Source: The Defiant
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