Chevron CEO Mike Wirth told an energy conference at the University of Texas at Austin that the mechanisms that cushioned oil prices earlier in the U.S.-Iran conflict have largely run out. He said the risk to prices over the next few months points upward, not downward, even as diesel hit a record and gasoline climbed back above $4.
Chevron's chairman and chief executive said on September 11 that oil markets have largely burned through the buffers that absorbed the initial shock of the U.S.-Iran conflict. Wirth told the audience prices are more likely to rise than fall over the coming months.
Oil market's shrinking buffers
When the conflict began, countries released crude from strategic reserves, drawn down commercial inventories, and the U.S. eased restrictions on sanctioned crude stored on vessels at sea. According to TheStreet: "Those have largely now played out", Wirth said. The loss of a major Saudi pipeline that bypassed the Strait of Hormuz put an estimated 2.5 million barrels of crude oil per day in limbo, tightening an already short market.
Wirth also said Chevron has seen fewer disruptions at its Tengiz oilfield in Kazakhstan since the Trump administration discussed Ukraine's strikes on Russian energy infrastructure.
Diesel hits a record, gasoline climbs back
The national average diesel price crossed $6 a gallon for the first time on September 10, then hit a record $6.23 a gallon by the time Wirth spoke the next day. Gasoline climbed back to about $4.32 a gallon, after slipping below $4 during the summer.
Brent crude for November 2026 delivery was trading near $105 a barrel around the time of the conference, with WTI just above $100. Brent traded near $70 before the Iran war started in late February, so it is now up about 50%. China has also added demand pressure, returning to the international market after running down domestic stockpiles for months.
Trump's timeline meets Wirth's caution
President Trump said on September 9 that oil prices would come down after the election, tying the drop to the November midterms. Interior Secretary Doug Burgum called the latest supply disruption temporary, pointing to plans to expand Venezuelan output and U.S. refining capacity.
The administration has already tapped the Strategic Petroleum Reserve heavily: reserves fell below 300 million barrels by early August, down more than 100 million barrels since the start of 2026. Wirth did not dispute that prices could eventually fall — he said the tools that previously limited the damage are gone, and the risks sit to the upside.
Americans have paid about $97 billion more for fuel since the Iran war started in late February, roughly $740 extra per household, according to CNN figures cited in the report.
Source: TheStreet
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