A Coin Metrics notice warns that Binance's reported Bitcoin supply may jump because of wider address coverage, not new coins. Exchange balances and deposits cannot show executed selling, so traders watching the US inflation report need trade data to judge sell pressure.
Bitcoin is trading near $76,000 ahead of Tuesday's US inflation report, and a data provider has flagged a reading that could look like a rush to sell. A larger Binance wallet balance can reflect expanded address coverage without fresh coins arriving.
In its Nov. 4 notice, Coin Metrics said it planned to update exchange-address data after additional addresses were disclosed. It anticipated significant increases in some hourly supply metrics that day and daily metrics on Nov. 5, particularly for Binance BTC measures in native units and US dollars.
A larger balance reading is not a sale
The provider said the planned changes would reflect broader address coverage without a corresponding change in actual exchange holdings. The notice gives a reason to question an apparent jump, but it does not quantify one.
Coin Metrics' exchange-supply methodology counts balances in identified hot and cold wallets at the end of an interval. It also warns that undiscovered addresses can leave the measure below actual holdings. Identifying an additional wallet therefore changes what the dataset sees, without establishing that a customer has just deposited more Bitcoin.
Deposits are the next place to look. Coin Metrics defines deposits as assets sent to an exchange during an interval, using addresses it identifies as exchange-owned. Those observations measure transfers and do not establish that the coins were sold.
Trade records show executed selling
Evidence of execution comes from a different dataset. Coin Metrics' trade records include time, price and amount, plus the taker's side where known. A sell taker is an incoming order that removes a resting bid, which identifies aggressive selling rather than coins merely held at an exchange.
Bitcoin was quoted at $75,871 on CryptoSlate's price page at 10:42 UTC on Nov. 7.
What traders can watch on Tuesday
The Bureau of Labor Statistics calendar schedules October CPI for Tuesday, Nov. 10 at 8:30 a.m. Eastern Time, or 13:30 UTC. Comparable flows would show whether coins are moving onto exchanges, while executed spot trades would show whether sellers are hitting standing buy orders.
The price response would then help assess whether buyers are absorbing that pressure. Aggressive selling alongside a resilient price would be consistent with absorption, according to the report, while sustained price weakness would make that reading harder to defend.
Sources: Coin Metrics, CryptoSlate
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