Bitcoin's rally has stalled after a 24% two-week surge, and CryptoQuant says the cryptocurrency must close above $81,700 to confirm a new bull market. The onchain analytics firm still calls the trend bullish, but it maps a resistance ladder up to $88,700 and support levels down to $62,000 if the price turns lower instead.
Bitcoin's outlook remains bullish, but it needs to clear resistance at $81,700 to confirm a new bull market, according to a Friday report from CryptoQuant. The firm said bitcoin's 24% rally over two weeks had stalled, with the price moving between $76,000 and $82,000 before settling around $77,000.
According to CryptoQuant: "The trend is still constructive, but a wall of resistance stands in the way," Julio Moreno, the firm's head of research, said in the report.
Resistance levels range from $77,100 to $88,700
Moreno pointed to resistance between $77,100 and $80,200, a zone where long-term holders sold as much as 539,000 BTC over a 30-day period this year. He called it the nearest and heaviest onchain supply resistance above the current price.
Beyond that zone sits bitcoin's 365-day moving average, currently around $81,700 — the first major technical level, according to Moreno. Bitcoin bull markets have historically started when the price closes above this moving average, and Moreno said a clear move above it could confirm a new one, or else bitcoin could keep trading in a range.
The next level is $83,600, based on CryptoQuant's "3x Metcalfe band", a model that estimates bitcoin's value from network activity such as active addresses. Moreno noted the 3x band sat at $138,000 when bitcoin hit its $126,000 all-time high in October 2025, while the 2x band was close to bitcoin's price when it first reached $100,000 in December 2024.
Moreno also sees possible selling pressure around $88,700, the upper level of CryptoQuant's trader realized price model, which tracks the average price paid by active traders.
Bitcoin's support levels if the rally reverses
If bitcoin moves lower instead, Moreno sees support around $70,000, its 200-day moving average. He also sees support between $62,000 and $65,000, where long-term holders bought about 476,000 BTC this year.
Moreno's overall read stays bullish: he framed bitcoin's task as absorbing that overhead supply and breaking through the valuation ceilings above before any new leg higher can form.
Source: The Block
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