Ethereum trades near $2,695 as October opens, with $2,775–$2,800 standing as the key resistance before a move toward $3,000 becomes likely. ETF demand has cooled after a strong September, while the Glamsterdam upgrade reaches a testnet milestone on Oct. 6.
CoinGecko data showed ETH trading around $2,693–$2,695 on Oct. 4, up roughly 0.7% over 24 hours but nearly flat over seven days. The token's market capitalization stood near $328 billion, after Ethereum touched an intraday high around $2,775 on Oct. 2 before falling back below $2,700.
Ether needs to clear $2,800 for a run at $3,000
Ethereum gained roughly 32.6% in August, ending the month near $2,467, then added another 8.8% in September to finish around $2,685. The advance accelerated in the second half of September, when ETH moved from about $2,398 on Sept. 15 to $2,775 by Sept. 21, before settling back into the $2,650–$2,700 range.
For October, the bullish case rests on a narrow area: ETH would need to close convincingly above roughly $2,775–$2,800. Holding that zone as support would put $2,900 and $3,000 back in view, while the existing rising channel points toward approximately $2,950–$3,100 later in the month if momentum continues.
The monthly RSI sits at 51.53, above its moving average of 48.46 — improving momentum, but still far from the overbought threshold near 70. MACD remains weaker, with the monthly line near -98.3 against a signal line around -66.4.
ETF buying has cooled after BlackRock's September purchases
Arkham Intelligence said on Sept. 17 that BlackRock's Ethereum funds had acquired approximately $1.57 billion worth of ETH over the preceding 20 days, with ETHA accounting for around $1.27 billion and ETHB another $296.5 million. However, the more recent data are less bullish: Farside Investors recorded $59.6 million in combined U.S. spot Ether ETF outflows on Sept. 30, followed by $55.4 million on Oct. 1 and $17.3 million on Oct. 2, for roughly $118 million in net outflows across the Sept. 28–Oct. 2 week.
That contrasts with the previous week, when the products attracted approximately $689.8 million. On-chain data from CryptoQuant analyst R3N showed the most recent reading at approximately 129,700 ETH leaving exchanges compared with 116,700 ETH entering them, described as the first clear divergence after weeks of closely matched flows.
Glamsterdam reaches a testnet milestone Oct. 6
The Ethereum Foundation has scheduled Glamsterdam to activate on the Sepolia testnet at 13:53:36 UTC on Oct. 6, combining the Amsterdam execution-layer upgrade with Gloas consensus-layer changes. Hoodi and mainnet activation dates have not yet been finalized, and the official roadmap currently lists Glamsterdam for mainnet in Q4 2026 without a confirmed date.
Separately, the Securities and Exchange Commission approved a Cboe BZX rule change permitting the listing of a 3x Ether ETF on Oct. 2, alongside leveraged products tied to Bitcoin, gold, silver, crude oil and natural gas.
Three scenarios frame the October outlook
Crypto.news' Ethereum price model currently gives October a base scenario around $3,034, with a bearish estimate near $2,579 and a bullish estimate around $3,641. Analyst Ted Pillows said ETH needs to reclaim $2,800 on the weekly close to strengthen bullish momentum, making that level the immediate test before traders treat $3,000 as an established target. Citi, meanwhile, raised its 12-month Ether target to $3,028 from $2,240 on Oct. 1, citing increased crypto activity, macroeconomic conditions and renewed ETF demand — though that forecast covers a 12-month horizon, not October specifically.
A loss of the mid-$2,600 region would open the door to the $2,400–$2,500 support area, where resistance repeatedly formed earlier in 2026 before ETH broke higher.
Source: crypto.news
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