Ethereum is on pace for a 70% gain in Q3 2026, its strongest quarterly performance on record, with derivatives positioning and on-chain data both pointing to sustained bullish conviction. US spot Ethereum ETFs added another $210.4 million on September 22, extending a two-session inflow streak. The rally has cooled slightly from its highs, but long-term holders show little sign of selling.
Q3 rally nears record territory
Ethereum is tracking a 70% return for Q3 2026, which would be its strongest quarterly performance on record. Open interest in ETH derivatives climbed to $30 billion. The average long/short ratio across major exchanges reached 1.54, showing long positions dominating short bets. The ETH/BTC pair is also pushing toward a key resistance level at 0.033, and a break above that level would add to the bullish signals already building around the token.
Bitcoin, meanwhile, slipped 4.45% from the $87,395 local high it reached on Monday, September 21. Ethereum itself fell 5.31% in under three days, a pullback that has yet to dent the broader bullish structure.
ETF demand extends its streak
US spot Ethereum ETFs added roughly $210.4 million in net inflows for the September 22 session. BlackRock's ETHA fund led with $115.2 million, while Fidelity's FETH added another $45 million.
That followed a September 21 session that brought in roughly $270 million, giving the ETF group two consecutive days of meaningful net demand. Two positive sessions do not confirm a trend on their own, but persistence over the next few sessions would strengthen the case that allocation behavior toward Ethereum is genuinely shifting.
Volatility cools after the breakout
Ethereum's 30-day realized volatility climbed to 0.73, its highest level since March, before dropping 38% to 0.45, according to crypto analyst Arab Chain. That spike in volatility followed Ethereum's breakout past the $2,500 supply zone, and the subsequent decline signals a pause in price action rather than a loss of momentum.
Long-term holders keep their coins
The 365-day MVRV ratio has moved back into positive territory, mirroring conditions last seen in July 2025, while the 3-month MVRV ratio is already strongly profitable. Dormant circulation, a measure of how much long-held ETH is moving, has stayed far quieter than the spikes recorded in July 2025.
That contrast suggests holders of Ethereum for a year or more are more comfortable sitting on their coins now than they were a year ago, reinforcing the bullish read on the current cycle.
Sources: AMBCrypto, Bitcoinist.com
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