A study by three Vietnamese researchers finds a statistical link between the EU's carbon emissions pricing and bitcoin mining activity shifting to Russia. The researchers say the pattern looks operational rather than physical, and note Russia's new mining bans could limit the trend going forward.
A new study finds that as the European Union's carbon allowance prices rise, bitcoin mining activity appears to migrate toward Russia. The paper, titled "Does Carbon Pricing Displace Crypto-Mining Emissions? Quantile Evidence on Carbon Leakage from EU27, Russian and Rest-of-World Power Grids," was written by Pham Ngoc Toan, Le Tran Trung Hieu, and Nguyen Vu Trung Nguyen.
Carbon pricing correlates with mining leakage to Russia
The researchers examined daily power sector emissions from the EU, Russia, and the rest of the world between 2019 and 2025, then linked those figures to bitcoin's daily closing price. They found a statistical correlation between EU carbon pricing and carbon emissions in Russia, concluding that bitcoin mining operations "migrate" to Russia during off-peak periods when both bitcoin and EU carbon allowance prices climb higher.
That same relationship did not appear between the EU and the rest of the world, which the study says makes the Russia-specific finding more significant. Unlike the EU, Russia has no carbon pricing structure, so mining there can be more profitable once EU carbon costs rise.
Researchers point to an operational shift, not physical relocation
Notably, the study did not observe physical relocation of mining hardware to Russia. Instead, it suggests the phenomenon has an operational origin: companies running equipment in both jurisdictions power down their EU rigs and turn on their Russian ones to protect profit margins.
Still, the authors flag limitations in their analysis, including the disruptive effect of China's May 2021 bitcoin mining ban on the established link, along with other unaccounted-for factors.
New Russian mining bans could limit the trend
Since 2025, Russia has enacted a crypto mining ban covering certain regions, and an expansion to Moscow was approved this year. That trend in crypto mining restrictions could complicate the operational relocation strategy the study describes, narrowing the options available to mining companies going forward.
Source: Bitcoin News
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