Dutch TTF natural gas traded at roughly three times the price the Netherlands' own long-term energy model assumes for the 2030s, the latest twist in five years of forecasts that keep underestimating gas-market shocks. The answer isn't a better single forecast but stress-testing energy investment against a much wider range of outcomes, since fixed-cost renewables act as a hedge that a gas-price guess cannot.
Dutch models still assume cheap gas
The Dutch Climate and Energy Outlook (KEV 2026) uses a central wholesale gas-price path that settles at roughly €0.20-€0.25 per cubic metre through much of the 2030s. In late September 2026, Dutch TTF gas was trading at approximately €72 per megawatt-hour, equivalent to around €0.70 per cubic metre — roughly three times the model's long-term central assumption.
That gap doesn't prove the model wrong for 2030. It shows that gas prices depend on weather, storage, Asian demand, LNG export capacity, pipeline failures, sanctions, wars and shipping routes — variables no single forecast can pin down.
Shocks keep catching forecasters out
In 2022, Russian supply cuts pushed TTF prices above €300 per megawatt-hour. By early 2026, the International Energy Agency expected strong LNG growth to improve security and affordability, while still warning that weather and geopolitics could cause renewed volatility.
Then the Middle East crisis disrupted LNG flows through the Strait of Hormuz. By September, benchmark European gas was again trading above €70 per megawatt-hour and more than double its level a year earlier.
Volatility adds billions to Europe's power bills
Gas-price swings don't stay contained to the gas market, since gas-fired plants often set the marginal wholesale power price. The European Environment Agency calculated that gas-price volatility added approximately €13 billion to the EU's wholesale electricity bill during the first 16 weeks of 2026 alone.
Over the same period, renewable capacity installed since 2010 saved an estimated €29 billion compared with a system in which renewable deployment had stalled.
Renewables act as a hedge, not a forecast
Most of the cost of a wind farm, solar park, grid cable or battery is fixed when the investment is made. As a result, once built, these assets don't need to buy fuel every morning at a price set by a war or a cold spell — unlike a gas plant.
The KEV 2026 report itself concludes that the Netherlands' continuing fossil-import dependence leaves it exposed to global market shocks. Europe still doesn't know whether gas will cost €25, €75 or €150 per megawatt-hour during the next crisis — but needing less of it removes the guesswork entirely.
Source: Oilprice.com
Trading involves risk.
Risk Disclaimer
