Galaxy Digital cut its odds for the CLARITY Act passing this year to 30%, saying the US Senate has only four working days to strike a deal before the August recess. The crypto market-structure bill still lacks the Democratic votes Republicans need, even as police unions and industry groups pile on pressure to force a floor vote.
Galaxy Digital lowered its estimate for the CLARITY Act’s passage this year to 30%, down from 50%. In a July 24 note to clients, the firm said lawmakers must reach a deal by July 30 to leave enough time for floor proceedings before senators leave Washington.
A 616-page bill that hasn’t won Democrats
Republicans released an updated 616-page combined version of the bill two days before Galaxy’s note, merging measures approved by the Senate Banking and Agriculture committees. The new text adds government ethics restrictions, expands law-enforcement provisions and revises how stablecoins are overseen under the GENIUS Act.
Its most politically sensitive addition bars senior federal officials, including the president, vice president, members of Congress and federal judges, from issuing or sponsoring cryptocurrencies while in office. Even so, seven Democrats involved in the negotiations said the latest proposal still fell short, calling for stronger consumer and ethics protections.
The math to 60 votes
Republicans control 53 Senate seats, but the bill needs 60 votes to overcome a filibuster. Galaxy expects Sens. Josh Hawley and Rand Paul to oppose the measure, while Sen. Mitch McConnell has not voted since his June hospitalization, leaving supporters with roughly 50 dependable Republican votes.
That puts the negotiating Democrats at the center of any path to passage. Senate Majority Leader John Thune left the door open this week, saying: “I would like to at least get Clarity started” before the recess.
Supporters turn up the pressure
Backing has widened beyond the crypto industry. The National Fraternal Order of Police, which represents more than 382,000 officers, endorsed the revised bill after earlier warning that developer protections could constrain investigations. Coinbase Chief Legal Officer Paul Grewal seized on that endorsement to press the Senate over where it stands on the bill.
Sources: CryptoSlate, U.Today
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