Gold fell below its October 30 low on Thursday, hitting a new 2026 low. An Investing.com analysis argues the move mirrors the break that preceded gold's April 2013 crash, and points to rates and the dollar as the driver.
December gold futures fell $115.20 to $3,885.30 on Thursday, and their intraday low of $3,856.70 took them below the October 30 low of $3,879.30. The analysis says it was gold's lowest level since early October 2025.
Futures traded near $3,900 at the time of writing, after an overnight move up to $3,927.20. The analyst says gold has declined by about 12% since September 1, when it traded near $4,426.
The break that came before the 2013 crash
In 2013, gold moved below its February low on April 3 and closed below it on April 4. It then rebounded for three sessions to a close of $1,585.25 on April 9.
The crash followed. Gold fell 5.1% on April 12 and 9.1% on April 15, and bottomed at $1,321.54 on April 16.
This year's pattern is moving faster, according to the analysis. In 2013, gold needed 13 days after the rebound's top to break below its pre-rebound low, while this year it needed only 3 days. The analyst reads this morning's upswing as a verification of the breakdown, in line with 2013.
Rates and the dollar weigh on gold
The analyst ties Thursday's decline to the price of money. The 10-year Treasury yield rose 12 basis points to 5.10%, and USD Index futures closed at 103.094, their highest close of 2026.
Fed funds futures priced more than one full rate hike for the December 8-9 meeting at Thursday's close. San Francisco Fed President Mary Daly said, according to the analysis: "My bias is that further tightening will be needed."
Even a slightly cooler producer price index report did not trigger a rally. Producer prices rose 0.3% in October, while economists polled by Dow Jones expected 0.4%.
War headlines fail to lift gold
Iran's military said four oil tankers were hit by explosions in the Strait of Hormuz, and gold declined anyway. The analyst argues that gold reacts to rates and the dollar much more than to the risk of a new war in the Middle East.
The analyst expects gold's next big move to be down, likely toward about $3,500.
Source: Investing.com
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