Gold climbed to $4,300 an ounce on Thursday, its fourth straight day of gains, as a shipping deal easing Middle East tensions and weak US jobs data pushed traders to scale back Fed rate-hike bets. A Federal Reserve official's warning on inflation and a rising 2026 price forecast added further support, while charts point to a possible near-term pullback.
Gold climbed to $4,300 an ounce on Thursday, marking its fourth consecutive session of gains. The metal has advanced nearly 6% since the start of the week, and the rally follows a partial deal to reopen shipping through the Strait of Hormuz, which has weighed on oil prices and eased concerns over inflation and further rate hikes.
Hormuz shipping deal cools rate-hike bets
Iran and Oman agreed to establish a shipping corridor through the strait, raising expectations of a recovery in Middle East energy supplies. As a result, markets have scaled back expectations for Fed tightening, now pricing in only one rate hike before the end of the year, down from two a week ago.
Weak labor data added further support. In July, the US private sector added just 44,000 jobs — the lowest since January and well below the 70,000 forecast — signaling a cooling labor market and pressuring the dollar. Federal Reserve official Lisa Cook, however, reiterated her readiness to support a rate hike if inflation doesn't slow, warning the Fed may not be able to delay action for long to bring inflation back to its 2% target.
Inflation forecast lifts price-target bets
The Fed's August forecast, which projects PCE inflation at 3.6% for 2026, has raised concern on Wall Street over the path of interest rates. Prediction markets tracking gold's odds of hitting $4,700 in August saw that probability climb from 1% to 5.6% over the past 24 hours.
Charts point to a near-term pullback
On the four-hour XAU/USD chart, gold broke above a consolidation range near $4,102 and rallied to $4,300, but is now consolidating below that level, with the MACD indicator signaling early bearish momentum.
The hourly chart tells a similar story: the metal broke below $4,272 and fell to $4,244 before correcting back to $4,272, and the Stochastic oscillator points to further downside toward $4,100.
Sources: ActionForex, Crypto Briefing
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