An MQL5 blogger expects gold to probe the $3,500 support level next week. The call rests on a Fed that markets expect to raise rates in December, which keeps the dollar and real yields firm.
Spot gold was last around $3,883 after touching a one-year low, and the blogger expects it to attempt a move toward $3,500 next week. The author calls $3,500 a base case for the week's direction, not a guarantee that gold closes there.
The Fed sits at 4.00% after its October hold. December is almost fully priced for a hike, likely 25bp to 4.25%, with a small chance of 50bp. According to the blogger, this hawkish backdrop keeps real yields and the dollar firm, the main weight on gold.
Next, the blogger sets out the levels. The critical near-term level is $3,840, and a decisive break there opens the path toward $3,750 and then the $3,500 area. The author does not think $3,500 gets hit in one straight move, but expects the market to probe in that direction.
FOMC minutes midweek could add pressure if they reinforce the tightening bias. The blogger treats any bounce toward $3,950–$4,000 as a chance to lighten up, not to buy.
Source: MQL5: Traders' Blogs
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