Gold and silver have resumed their 2026 rally after a five-month correction, with the move accelerating on August 5. Analysts expect a near-term pullback in the miners before precious metals lead a broader Q4 rally.
Gold and silver have entered what analysts call Phase 1 of a 2026 bull run, following a correction that lasted roughly five months. The rally, tracked through the BPGDM breadth indicator's 200-day moving average, had been anticipated since early July off a deeply oversold setup.
Rally accelerates in early August
Momentum firmed further when gold and silver both ramped on August 5, alongside the silver/gold ratio, which continued forming a base analysts expect could eventually turn higher.
That ratio's next leadership move is expected to arrive later, in what is described as Phase 2 of the 2026 bull run, when commodity and resource stocks broadly are expected to follow the metals higher.
Gold mining stocks are being managed closely during a pullback already in progress. GDX is holding its 200-day moving average, allowing room for a lower gap at 78.86 to fill without threatening the broader rally, which began off a positive RSI divergence. A drop below the SMA 200 and the 84-87 support zone would raise the odds the rally ends at the lower of two targets on the HUI Gold Bugs index rather than the higher one.
Broader market seen as bigger risk
The analysis points to the Gold/S&P 500 ratio bottoming at a higher low than its previous major low, a setup framed as low relative risk for gold versus the broader stock market. Stock market seasonal averages typically turn bearish heading into September, and the analysis expects the broader market rally to be interrupted before a Q4 buying opportunity emerges.
Given that setup, the outlook favors gold, gold stocks and silver leadership heading into the fourth quarter. Throughout 2026, the approach has emphasized rotating between sectors — out of semiconductors and into biotech and software, then back again — while remaining long quality gold stocks with a bias toward royalty companies. The plan calls for redistributing profits from high-flying positions into new rally candidates until the next leg in precious metals resumes.
Source: Investing.com
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