Weak U.S. jobs data pushed spot gold up 1.4% to $4,182.28 an ounce, ending a five-week losing streak as bets on a September rate hike faded. Silver, platinum and palladium rallied alongside it, and traders now look to Wednesday’s Fed minutes for the next signal.
Spot gold rose 1.4% to $4,182.28 an ounce, snapping a run in which the metal had failed to post a positive weekly performance for five straight weeks. The turn came after Friday’s labor market data landed well below expectations, reviving interest in gold as a hedge against a weaker dollar and lower real yields.
Weak jobs data reshapes the rate outlook
The soft reading pushed traders to reassess the Federal Reserve’s next move. Before Thursday’s jobs report, the market assigned roughly a 65% probability to a September rate hike; after the report, that fell to 53.5% on the CME’s FedWatch tool, following the Fed’s decision to hold rates steady in July. Separately, the June print showed the economy added 57,000 jobs against expectations of 110,000 to 115,000, according to FXEmpire.
Because gold pays no yield, a more dovish Fed that weakens the dollar and lowers real yields tends to support the metal. According to Briefs Finance, OCBC strategists said the move helps the case: “The softer-than-expected payrolls data helps reduce the hawkish tail risk.”
Precious metals rally together
The bounce spread across the complex. Spot silver climbed 2.9% to $62.77 an ounce, on pace for a weekly gain of about 6.7%, while platinum traded 2.8% higher at $1,660.10 and palladium added roughly 1% to $1,280.09.
Even so, the week’s move sits against a heavy year. Gold is still down 3% year to date and silver down 12%, a pullback from January’s all-time high of over $5,300 per ounce that left gold trading at a discount of around 22% from that peak. That decline followed a 66% surge in gold and a 135% surge in silver over 2025, when high inflation and safe-haven demand drove prices higher.
Fed minutes are the next test
Attention now shifts to the record of the June 16-17 meeting. The FOMC minutes are due Wednesday, July 8, and the Fed held steady at that meeting even as its dot plot still pointed to at least one more hike in 2026, FXEmpire reported. If the minutes read hawkish with no dissent, the September hike odds could stop falling and leave gold consolidating near current levels.
On the charts, FXEmpire noted last week’s action formed a closing price reversal bottom, a pattern that does not change the trend but, if confirmed, could trigger the start of a two-to-three-week counter-trend rally. Confirmation hinges on a push through the 52-week moving average at $4,257.63, FXEmpire said.
Sources: Briefs Finance, FXEmpire
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