Gold steadied near $4,028 an ounce on Wednesday after its steepest quarterly drop in more than a decade, as a firmer dollar and higher Treasury yields capped the rebound. Traders now wait on Thursday's June payrolls report, which could set the metal's next move.
Gold clawed back ground before the North American open Wednesday, with spot gold trading near $4,028.20 an ounce, up 0.54%, as traders covered shorts near major support. A firmer U.S. dollar and higher Treasury yields kept the bounce contained. The recovery came straight off the metal's weakest quarterly performance since 2013.
A dollar-driven selloff
Gold declined approximately 14% during the June quarter, pressured as investors shifted into the dollar on growing bets the Federal Reserve will tighten again this year. Minutes from the Fed's June meeting showed several policymakers backing at least one rate increase before year-end, a sharp turn from earlier 2026 expectations of cuts.
Higher rates dull gold's appeal because the metal pays no income. According to Yahoo Finance, Trade Nation analyst David Morrison wrote: "Gold took another punch to the guts overnight". He also pointed to the dollar's rebound after a week-long consolidation as a drag on the metal. That backdrop explains much of why the price of gold has been dropping.
Jobs data holds the key
Positioning now centers on Thursday's June nonfarm payrolls report, due before the July 3 market holiday. Private payrolls rose 98,000 in June, ahead of the 92,500 forecast but below May's 122,000 gain, while consensus looks for official payrolls to slow toward 100,000 to 115,000 and unemployment to edge up to 4.4%.
That keeps the trade binary. A firm print would support the dollar, yields and Fed rate-hike pricing; a softer one would give gold more room to extend the rebound. Thin pre-holiday liquidity could magnify the reaction across gold, the dollar and the front end of the Treasury curve.
Where prices sit now
Gold's early range ran $3,959.40 to $4,036.40, holding above the late-June breakdown zone but below the $4,100 area that would mark a cleaner recovery. On Kitco's read, first resistance sits at $4,044.00 and then $4,100.00, with first support at $3,959.00. FXEmpire analyst Christopher Lewis noted the market continues to hang on to the $4,000 level, a round figure he expects to keep printing headlines.
Sources: KITCO, Yahoo Finance, FXEmpire
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