Gold futures trade near $4,115.90 with a bearish bias as the dollar and oil slide after Democrats won Congress. Markets still price an 80% chance of a Fed hike in December, and the analyst flags support at $4,070.
Gold futures are trading at $4,115.90 after opening the day at $4,075.20 and testing a high of $4,155.80. The analysis behind this report says the metal could shed more gains, as it looks ready to repeat its October 22, 2026 fall after testing the same resistance levels.
Dollar and oil retreat after the midterms
The U.S. dollar fell to multi-week lows on Thursday as a Democratic sweep of Congress bolstered risk appetite. Meanwhile, the 10-year Treasury yield hovered at 4.891%, roughly 47 basis points below its October peak of 5.36%.
Oil fell harder. Brent crude futures dived nearly 9% overnight to break below $100 a barrel, extending a weekly slide to roughly 20%.
Fed hike odds stay high
Strong labor data keeps the Fed outlook hawkish. Money markets price an 80% probability of a 25-basis-point rate hike next month, after last week's decision to hold borrowing costs at 3.75% to 4.00% amid two hawkish dissents.
Iran risk has not gone away
The analyst writes that a renewed war with Iran seems delayed but not evaporated, because the choking of two vital waterways is still intact. The report adds that President Donald Trump has strongly hinted he is prepared to resume the war once the midterm season ends.
On the one-hour chart, gold futures look ready to break below support at $4,070 in today's session. The next two significant supports sit at $4,044 and $3,980.
The analyst says weakness could extend on Friday as speculative positions unwind.
Source: Investing.com
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