The World Gold Council’s Andrew Naylor expects gold to hold above $4,000 an ounce through the end of 2026, trading within ±5% of the $4,100 level. He ties the outlook to Federal Reserve rate expectations, inflation and a firmer dollar, while central bank demand keeps momentum behind the metal.
Gold will not fall below $4,000 per ounce before the end of 2026, according to Andrew Naylor, Head of Middle East and Public Policy at the World Gold Council. He expects the metal to trade within ±5% of the $4,100 level for the rest of the year, and said any drop of more than 10% typically pulls in strong demand from long-term investors that supports the market.
What sets the direction
Naylor said the metal’s path will be shaped mainly by global interest rate expectations, particularly the Federal Reserve’s decision expected next October, alongside inflation and the strength of the dollar. He noted that inflation peaked at around 3.9% during the second quarter.
Gold has already run hot this year. Naylor pointed out that the average price reached $4,873 per ounce in the first quarter of 2026, peaking at $5,405, driven by geopolitical tensions, inflation and demand from central banks. He explained that gold has historically responded positively in about two-thirds of the cases where geopolitical tensions escalated sharply, though rising oil prices and expectations of prolonged high rates have weighed on the response this time.
Demand stays firm
Despite those pressures, total global demand for gold rose 2% year-on-year to 1,231 tonnes in the first quarter of 2026, Naylor said, while the value of demand hit a record $193 billion, a 74% increase. He added that demand for bars and coins climbed 42% to 474 tonnes as investors used the metal to hedge against inflation and economic uncertainty.
He acknowledged that gold ETFs saw some outflows during the recent downturn, but said these were not widespread and did not signal a major institutional exit. Instead, flows tend to shift with monetary policy expectations rather than any change in demand fundamentals.
Central banks keep buying
Naylor said the Council’s annual Central Bank Gold Reserves survey found that 89% of reserve managers expect gold holdings to keep rising over the next 12 months. With gold overtaking US bonds as the most important reserve asset, he expects strong central bank demand to persist through 2026.
Source: Egypt Independent
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