The National Hurricane Center raised the odds that a Gulf tropical disturbance develops into a storm, with its track pointing at Louisiana and Florida. Louisiana alone holds about 3 million barrels a day of crude-refining capacity, roughly a sixth of the US total, putting that capacity in the storm's potential path.
The National Hurricane Center lifted its seven-day development forecast for a Gulf tropical disturbance to 70% on Monday morning, up from 50%. The system's projected track points toward the Gulf Coast between Louisiana and Florida, a stretch of coastline that processes a large share of the nation's crude.
Louisiana is a major US fuel-supply and export hub, with about 3 million barrels a day of crude-refining capacity, roughly one-sixth of the national total. That capacity now sits within the range the disturbance could reach if it strengthens.
Private forecasters at BAM Weather outlined the range of hazards the system could bring. According to BAM Weather: "strong winds, inland flooding, storm surge, and tornadoes" could hit the coast from Louisiana to Florida, though the firm added that timing, track, and intensity remain highly uncertain within this projected range.
The warning comes against an otherwise mild backdrop. The Atlantic hurricane season's climatological peak fell in mid-September, and the season has stayed quiet since as El Niño wind shear breaks apart tropical disturbances across the Atlantic Basin.
Source: Oilprice.com
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