Wall Street's 2026 hyperscaler capital spending estimate has jumped 71% in six months, from around $460 billion to $789 billion. Goldman Sachs and CreditSights have both raised their forecasts toward $800 billion, with Amazon, Alphabet, and Meta among the companies committing hundreds of billions each.
Wall Street's estimate for 2026 hyperscaler capital spending has jumped from around $460 billion six months ago to $789 billion, a 71% revision that reflects how aggressively Big Tech is betting on artificial intelligence infrastructure.
Forecasts converge near $800 billion
Goldman Sachs now estimates hyperscaler capex at roughly $800 billion for 2026, placing its projection at the top of a consensus range between $700 billion and $800 billion. CreditSights raised its own estimate from approximately $600 billion to $620 billion up to $750 billion, a jump that represents roughly 67% year-over-year growth.
Amazon, Alphabet, and Meta commit hundreds of billions each
Amazon is expected to lead the pack with around $200 billion in single-year capital expenditure for 2026. Alphabet's capex guidance has been revised upward multiple times, landing in a range of $175 billion to $205 billion, while Meta projects spending between $115 billion and $145 billion. Rising costs for next-generation GPUs, advanced networking equipment, and power infrastructure are adding to the totals.
Backlogs outpace available capacity
Alphabet's cloud backlog has climbed past $460 billion and later reached $514 billion, hinting that customers are lining up for AI compute capacity faster than it can be built. Microsoft's Azure backlog is reportedly constrained not by demand but by power availability. Goldman Sachs has projected that global investment in AI could exceed $1 trillion by 2026, with hyperscaler capex making up the lion's share of that figure.
Cash flow is stretched thin
AI-related capital expenditure is anticipated to consume nearly 93% of operating cash flow for these firms by 2026, leaving little room for other investments or buybacks. As a result, hyperscalers are likely to lean more on debt, leasing arrangements, and customer prepayments to bridge the gap. Alphabet's $514 billion backlog represents years of contracted revenue that hasn't yet been recognized.
Source: Crypto Briefing
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