Iran has installed new military leadership around an "offensive doctrine" as talks to end its six-month war with the US remain deadlocked over the Strait of Hormuz. Neither Washington nor Tehran controls the waterway outright, and a durable peace sought by mediators Pakistan and Qatar looks increasingly elusive.
Iran has reorganized its top military command to be more aggressive abroad, a sign Tehran is preparing for a protracted era of regional conflict rather than a fast resolution to its war with the US. The shift comes as negotiations over the Strait of Hormuz stay stuck, with both sides claiming control of the passage and demanding concessions the other is unlikely to meet.
New command, "offensive doctrine"
A raft of top military appointments by Supreme Leader Mojtaba Khamenei marks the shift, according to Mohammad Reza Naqdi, an Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps general who advises the force's new commander. He contrasted the new approach with a pre-war doctrine focused on defense. US President Donald Trump has swung between threatening to resume strikes and voicing confidence that talks are progressing; he claimed total control over the Strait of Hormuz in a Truth Social post Wednesday, a claim Iran has repeatedly countered by attacking ships transiting the passage.
Pakistan-brokered talks near their deadline
Pakistan is mediating alongside Qatar, and its defense minister told Bloomberg that the US and Iran are close to some sort of arrangement, without elaborating. An interim peace deal reached in June set a 60-day negotiating window that is now close to expiring, though Pakistan's foreign ministry says it could be extended. According to Wendy Sherman, a former US deputy secretary of state, in comments to Bloomberg TV: "We are definitely at a stalemate." She said she expects Iran to control the strait for the foreseeable future absent sanctions relief.
Oil keeps moving, at a reduced pace
About a fifth of the world's oil and liquefied natural gas moved through the strait before the US and Israel began attacking Iran on Feb. 28, and traffic continues at a much lower rate as producers find workarounds. Brent crude traded at about $89 a barrel in London Wednesday as traders stayed uncertain on the geopolitical risk around a Middle East deal. A US Navy helicopter fired two missiles at a Panama-flagged cargo vessel in the Gulf of Oman Tuesday for sailing toward an Iranian port in violation of the US blockade, yet so-called shuttle transits through Hormuz continue.
Source: Rigzone
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