Iran's top security official says the country will target the assets of nations that support U.S. sanctions, a warning that lands as tanker traffic through the Strait of Hormuz continues under strain. Forty tankers transited the strait on Friday night, but diesel supply concerns are now overshadowing the passage itself. Prediction markets give just a 5.5% chance that Hormuz traffic returns to normal by September 30, down from 14% a week earlier.
Iran's top security official, Mohsen Rezaei, said on state television that Iran plans to target the assets of nations supporting U.S. economic sanctions against the country. The comments suggest a potential escalation that would extend the conflict beyond direct U.S.-Iran dynamics to nations perceived as aiding U.S. sanctions efforts. It lands as oil markets watch the Strait of Hormuz, the chokepoint at the center of the current tension.
Forty tankers transited the Strait of Hormuz on Friday night, but diesel supply has emerged as the more pressing concern beyond simple passage through the strait. A prediction market tracking whether Hormuz traffic returns to normal by September 30 is priced at just 5.5% YES, reflecting skepticism that conditions will normalize soon. That probability was 14% just a week earlier, underscoring how quickly sentiment has shifted.
Rezaei's asset-targeting threat adds another layer to that uncertainty. Markets pricing a U.S.-Iran deal in 2026 have also moved: YES probabilities across related sub-markets have dropped as the retaliation rhetoric escalates.
Sources: Crypto Briefing, Crypto Briefing
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