Egypt and Libya are actively discussing an 800-km pipeline linking Tobruk to Alexandria, likely starting at 150,000–250,000 barrels per day. The project would give Egypt crude that bypasses Hormuz, Bab el-Mandeb and Suez while giving Libya a new export route, but financing is still unsettled and first oil realistically arrives around 2030.
Cairo and Tripoli are now actively discussing a crude oil pipeline that would run 800 kilometers from Tobruk in eastern Libya to Egypt's port of Alexandria. The proposed pipeline carries an official preliminary cost above $1 billion, though neither final capacity nor financing has been agreed. The idea is not new: Egypt and Libya examined essentially the same 620-km corridor in 2002 through a 50:50 joint venture between Libya's NOC and Egypt's EGPC/GASCO, initially designed for 150,000 bpd.
Hormuz exposure drives Egyptian demand
Disruption to Kuwaiti supplies tied to the Strait of Hormuz already pushed Cairo to purchase at least 1 million barrels per month of Libyan crude. The two countries are also advancing a January Libya–Egypt energy cooperation agreement studying crude and gas transport between them. A pipeline entering at Tobruk would create a Mediterranean crude supply route that never passes through Hormuz, Bab el-Mandeb or Suez.
Refining capacity underpins the case
Alexandria's MIDOR refinery alone runs at roughly 160,000–170,000 bpd following a $2.7 billion expansion and processed more than 49 million barrels in 2025. A 150,000-bpd pipeline would deliver almost 55 million barrels a year, rising to 91 million barrels at 250,000 bpd. For Libya, the project ties into NOC's target to lift production well above today's roughly 1.4–1.5 million bpd, linked to a January 2026 TotalEnergies/ConocoPhillips agreement targeting more than $20 billion in investment.
Costs and politics remain the hurdles
Realistic planning costs likely land between $1.3 billion and $2.2 billion, and could reach $2.5 billion if storage and downstream modifications are included. Yet financing depends on securing sovereign guarantees, since no international bank, sovereign wealth fund or IOC has publicly committed to the project. Political risk compounds the challenge: Tobruk sits within the sphere of eastern Libyan authorities, while pipeline talks run through Tripoli's Government of National Unity, and August drone attacks near Zawiya damaged petroleum storage infrastructure.
An earliest realistic final investment decision would come in 2027, with first oil more likely around 2030 once cost escalation is factored in. The technical case is straightforward; whether Libya can guarantee the crude keeps flowing is not.
Source: Oilprice.com
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