Microsoft is shifting to what its management calls a "per user and usage business," and Trefis argues that change — not any single AI feature — is what could power the stock higher. The stock is down about 20% over the past year even as Copilot seats and capital spending climb.
Microsoft's stock has stayed earthbound while the company sits at the center of the AI boom, and Trefis argues the fuel for any sustained climb lies in a change to how the company charges customers rather than in any new feature. The shares are down about 20% over the past year and trade 28% below their 52-week high.
That backdrop frames the pitch: after years of selling software subscriptions, Microsoft is moving toward getting paid for what its AI does.
Selling outcomes, not seats
Management describes the transformation as moving to a "per user and usage business", a phrase Trefis reads as a bid to capture a fraction of the value from the billions of queries, reports and summaries its AI agents run. Instead of charging only for access to a tool, the company would earn from each task that tool performs.
If it works, the model could re-rate the stock valuation implied by what each of Microsoft's hundreds of millions of users is worth.
Copilot as the early proof
The first evidence comes from Microsoft 365 Copilot. The company now reports over 20 million paid Copilot seats. In the most recent quarter, seat additions rose 250% year-over-year — the fastest growth since the product launched.
Trefis frames that base as a real, paying set of customers already adopting the consumption-based products meant to define the company's future, rather than a hypothetical.
A $190 billion bet
Microsoft is backing the shift with heavy spending. It expects to invest roughly $190 billion in capital expenditures in calendar year 2026 alone, aimed at building the infrastructure to power all that paid usage.
Even with that outlay, management says customer demand continues to exceed available capacity. Trefis calls the spending the clearest signal of the company's conviction in a per-user, per-usage future, a bet that embedding AI agents into everyday office work can compound revenue for years.
Source: Yahoo Finance
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