Morgan Stanley projects global AI-related spending near $1.58 trillion by 2027, and Nvidia could collect approximately $690 billion of it. A separate projection points to about $430 billion in Nvidia chip sales this year, though supply constraints remain.
A Morgan Stanley report projects global AI-related capital expenditures of approximately $1.58 trillion by 2027. Nvidia could collect approximately $690 billion of that total, rounded to $700 billion in some assessments.
How the forecast breaks down
Morgan Stanley expects roughly 65% of total AI capex, or about $1.03 trillion, to flow to companies in the S&P 500. Nvidia is then expected to take about two-thirds of that share.
The forecast also grew. Morgan Stanley raised its 2027 total by about 14% after counting lease obligations that were not previously included.
By category, semiconductors and servers are projected to account for about 42% of 2027 AI capex, or approximately $672 billion.
Nvidia's own outlook points the same way
The bank's projection lines up with what Nvidia has told investors. On the company's fiscal Q2 2027 earnings call, CFO Colette Kress indicated expectations that hyperscaler capex would approach $800 billion in 2026 and reach around $1.3 trillion in 2027. She also pointed to a cloud industry backlog exceeding $2 trillion.
Not everyone agrees on the near-term pace, however. Estimates for 2026 hyperscaler capex have ranged from about $650 billion to more than $800 billion.
Chip sales and the supply limit
A separate projection has Nvidia selling about $430 billion worth of chips this year. In its August 2026 earnings release, Nvidia reported quarterly revenue of $96.2 billion, up 106% from a year earlier.
Nvidia's CFO has pointed to annual revenue growth of about 70% for fiscal 2028, which would put sales near $673 billion. CEO Jensen Huang indicated Nvidia expects to sell twice the chip volume next year compared with 2026.
Supply, not demand, is the catch. The semiconductor supply chain remains constrained, and the company has forecast revenue growth below what market demand would support.
Morgan Stanley's report also ties AI spending to the broader market, expecting it to contribute about 5% of S&P 500 revenue in 2027.
Sources: Crypto Briefing, Crypto Briefing
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