XRP has gained 33% over the past month, trading at $1.43 as of Aug. 28. Motley Fool contributor Alex Carchidi says he won't add to his position beyond what he already holds through the Canary XRP ETF, arguing the rally traces to a pending Senate bill rather than stronger token fundamentals.
Carchidi, who already holds XRP through the Canary XRP ETF, says the coin's fundamentals haven't kept pace with its price. He's become skeptical of that underlying value even as the rally continues.
A Senate bill, not usage, drives the gains
The rally traces largely to the Senate scheduling a vote for Sept. 15 on the Digital Asset Market Clarity Act, legislation that would set rules for financial institutions handling crypto. If the bill passes, it would likely benefit XRP by giving banks a clearer framework for holding and transacting with the token, Carchidi wrote. But he says that has little to do with XRP's ongoing ability to generate economic value and pass it on to holders.
Ledger revenue lags new supply by a wide margin
The XRP Ledger generated $48,168 in transaction fees during the second quarter, fees that get burned and should, in theory, lift the value of each remaining coin. Yet the circulating supply keeps expanding regardless: about 272 million XRP entered circulation each month in the first half of 2026 through Ripple's long-standing escrow releases, with the maximum supply capped near 100 billion tokens.
Asset manager 21Shares estimates that network fee revenue would need to grow roughly 12,700 times over to offset a single year of new supply hitting the market — a gap Carchidi calls unlikely to close soon.
Carchidi still expects XRP to probably be worth more in 12 months, and probably worth even more again five years out, if the regulatory catalysts play out as crypto insiders hope. But until the network finds a way to link its success to token holders' returns, he says he's holding his current stake rather than adding to it.
Source: The Motley Fool
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