Natural gas is on track to overtake petroleum as the top U.S. energy source by 2030 after the gap between the two nearly closed in 2025. Cheap shale supply, a wave of electrification and flat gasoline demand are reordering the country’s energy mix.
Natural gas will likely surpass oil as the largest U.S. energy source for the first time by the end of the decade, after the gap all but disappeared in 2025. The shift would end a chapter that began in 1950, when petroleum ended coal’s reign as the nation’s leading fuel.
In 2025, natural gas made up 36% of U.S. energy consumption, just behind petroleum’s 37%, according to a recent Energy Information Administration report. The gap has narrowed over the past decade as the shale revolution supercharged gas output while the economy electrified and gasoline — the largest source of domestic oil demand — flatlined.
Toby Rice, CEO of top U.S. gas producer EQT Corp., expects the crossover soon. According to Transport Topics: “I say we probably cross that threshold within the next couple years”, Rice said in an interview.
Electrification pulls demand toward gas
The change comes as electric vehicles and data center development lift electricity demand from gas-fired power plants, adding strain to the U.S. grid. The grid generates more than 40% of its power by burning natural gas, according to EIA data. EVs have, in part, contributed to waning gasoline demand that is unlikely to return to pre-pandemic highs, even as Americans drive more each year.
The EIA expects petroleum demand to rise 0.6% between 2025 and 2027, while gas demand jumps 3.4% over the same period, further shrinking the gap.
Shale supply displaced coal
Since fracking and horizontal drilling in the 2000s unlocked previously uneconomic reserves, gas has largely pushed out coal as the nation’s largest power plant fuel. From 2011 to 2020, more than 100 coal plants were replaced by or converted to gas generators, according to the EIA. Gas plants can also ramp up and down faster than coal and nuclear units when intermittent wind and solar output drops.
The picture excludes the growth of U.S. liquefied natural gas. The country is already the world’s largest LNG exporter, and shipments are set to roughly double by the end of the decade. Shell predicts U.S. feedgas for LNG plants will reach 23% of total gas production by 2035, according to its annual LNG outlook.
Renewables are still growing faster in relative terms. From 2015 to 2025, wind and solar use more than tripled while natural gas use rose 23%, though gas added more in absolute volume, according to EIA data.
Source: Transport Topics
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