Brent crude climbed back above $100 a barrel for the first time since July after Iran's Revolutionary Guards said they struck American vessels and oil tankers in the Gulf, retaliating for U.S. strikes on Iranian tankers. Houthi attacks on Saudi energy sites and a fresh forecast hike from Goldman Sachs added to the supply concerns.
Brent breaks $100 again
Brent crude rose 2.1% past $100 a barrel on Tuesday, the benchmark's first move above that level since July, as fighting between the US and Iran flared again in the Gulf. Iran's Revolutionary Guards Corps said Wednesday it struck two American vessels and eight oil tankers in retaliation, after the U.S. military destroyed five Iranian crude tankers the day before. The Guards said the vessels had tried to cross an area of the Strait of Hormuz it had declared off-limits.
The same night, Iran-backed Houthi forces attacked four cities in Saudi Arabia, wounding more than 70 people and setting oil installations ablaze. Brent is up more than 60% this year and has now traded above $100 for three separate stretches in 2026.
Goldman Sachs lifts its price targets
Goldman Sachs responded by raising its year-end forecasts, now expecting Brent to trade at $85 a barrel in December and WTI at $80, both $5 above its previous estimates. The bank warned Brent could exceed $120 if Gulf production and exports stay significantly constrained, particularly if attacks on Hormuz and Red Sea shipping intensify.
Crude has not climbed further so far because the market has tapped other supply sources to cushion the shock. Goldman said OECD commercial oil inventories have seen relatively modest declines, with governments releasing strategic reserves and China drawing on stockpiles, though the bank cautioned those buffers are finite.
Inflation pressure builds
Rising energy costs are feeding into inflation. Bank of England governor Andrew Bailey told MPs on Tuesday that the latest oil price rise was pushing up inflation and interest rate risk. According to the Guardian: "The risks, I'm afraid, are on the upside." UK petrol reached an average of 166.2p a litre on Tuesday, the highest in four years. U.S. gasoline hit a national average of $4.15 a gallon, up from $4.02 a month earlier.
Sources: The Guardian, CNBC, The Daily Hodl
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