Polymarket traders assign a 52% probability to bitcoin touching $70,000 before 2027 and 9% to $100,000. Kalshi participants concentrate their year-end expectations around $70,000 to $80,000. The figures reflect market-implied expectations rather than definitive forecasts.
Polymarket traders put a 52% probability on bitcoin touching $70,000 before 2027. A return to $100,000 carries just 9%.
Bitcoin traded at $75,723 at noon Eastern on Nov. 7, down 2.4% over seven days and 6.6% over the preceding month. With fewer than eight weeks left in the year, prediction markets show considerable skepticism about a meaningful recovery.
Polymarket prices a $70,000 test
Polymarket's 2026 bitcoin market has about $82.74 million in trading volume across more than 46 price targets. A decline to $65,000 carries 31%, while $60,000 carries 18%.
On the upside, $90,000 before year's end carries 24%, falling to 13% at $95,000 and 3% at $120,000. These contracts measure whether bitcoin touches a value, not where it finishes the year.
Kalshi clusters around $75,000
Kalshi's year-end market has about $46.01 million in cumulative volume and identifies where bitcoin will settle when 2026 ends. The $75,000 to $79,999.99 bracket leads at 17.6%, narrowly ahead of $70,000 to $74,999.99 at 17.5%.
Together, the two leading brackets hold 35.1% of implied probability. Kalshi settles using the CME CF Bitcoin Real Time Index, while Polymarket uses Binance-based intraday measurements.
November contracts lean lower
Polymarket's November market assigns 81% to bitcoin touching $77,500 and 56% to $80,000 before December. A move to $85,000 carries 23%, and $90,000 carries 9%.
On the downside, traders assign 61% to $72,500, 43% to $70,000 and 26% to $67,500. Prediction-market prices reflect what participants are willing to pay for specific contracts, not a statistically guaranteed probability of future price movements.
Source: Bitcoin News
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