Rystad Energy has lowered its forecast for Russian crude output, pointing to sanctions, drone attacks on export infrastructure and shrinking spare capacity. The consultancy now expects production to average 8.95 million barrels per day in 2026 before easing further in 2027, even as OPEC+ lifts Russia's official output quota for September.
Rystad Energy has cut its forecast for Russian crude oil output for the year ahead. The consultancy now expects production to average 8.95 million barrels per day in 2026, easing toward about 8.6 million barrels per day in 2027. That is a 90,000 bpd cut from its previous forecast, tied to renewed disruptions at western Russian export terminals.
Spare capacity keeps shrinking
Rystad warned that Russia has little room left to absorb further supply shocks. Onshore crude inventories already sit at levels where sustained production cuts become hard to avoid, so disruptions of the same scale now trigger faster, deeper cuts at the field level. The firm estimates Russia's spare production capacity — barrels that could return quickly if all constraints were lifted — at around 620,000 bpd in 2026, rising modestly to 700,000 bpd in 2027. Much of that capacity, however, sits in aging, high-water-cut wells that risk permanent abandonment the longer they stay shut in. According to Rystad Energy: "Even if operational constraints are eased, a meaningful recovery in output appears unlikely."
Refineries are running well below normal
Daria Melnik, Rystad's vice president of oil and gas research, said drone attacks no longer hit only refineries and are now constraining the upstream sector too. Refinery throughput is forecast to average around 4 million bpd between July and December. That is almost 30% below the 2016-2023 seasonal average of roughly 5.7 million bpd. Every barrel Russia can't refine must be exported, stored or cut from production, and July showed the export system can't consistently absorb the extra volumes after June's imbalance proved manageable.
OPEC+ raises Russia's quota anyway
Despite the constraints, OPEC+ agreed on August 2 to lift group output by almost 190,000 bpd in September. That includes a 62,000 bpd increase allotted to Russia, leaving the country's required production target at 9.949 million bpd for September, well above what Rystad expects it to actually pump. Rystad added that a projected global oil surplus in 2027 would pressure benchmark prices and erode Russia's bargaining power, as buyers in China, India, Türkiye, Hungary and Slovakia gain more access to non-sanctioned crude and become less willing to accept the risks of Russian barrels without deeper discounts.
Source: Rigzone
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