Silver fell more than 20% in June 2026, its steepest monthly drop since September 2011, leaving the metal near $60 an ounce. A stronger dollar and a hawkish Federal Reserve pivot drove the selloff, yet oversold signals and firm growth data have some traders questioning whether the plunge went too far.
June ranks as silver's worst month in nearly 15 years. The metal tumbled more than 20% over the month, its steepest monthly decline since September 2011. At around $60 an ounce, silver has roughly halved from its January high near $120, when it was Wall Street's hottest trade.
A stronger dollar meets a hawkish Fed
Two forces drove the drop. The first was silver's tight link to gold: bullion also fell more than 11% in June, giving back close to 30% from its own early-2026 peak. Silver, the more volatile of the pair, tends to fall further and faster when the precious-metals complex turns.
The second was the dollar. The U.S. Dollar Index rose about 2.4% in June, lifted by a sharp shift in Federal Reserve expectations as Kevin Warsh took the helm, with U.S. inflation still running near 4%. Futures now treat a rate increase by October as all but certain and assign roughly even odds to a second rate hike by March 2027. Because silver pays no coupon, a higher-yield, stronger-dollar backdrop raises the cost of holding it.
The 2011 parallel is imperfect
The last time silver fell this hard, the world economy was under severe stress. The European sovereign debt crisis was intensifying and S&P Global Ratings had stripped the U.S. of its AAA rating on Aug. 5, 2011. In a scramble for cash, the metal collapsed more than 25% in days, sliding from the low-$40s toward $26.
This time the data point the other way. The U.S. economy expanded at a 2.1% annualized rate in Q1 2026, the Bureau of Economic Analysis said in its third estimate, revised up from 1.6% and a sharp acceleration from 0.5% in Q4 2025. The Atlanta Fed's GDPNow model points to roughly 2.5% growth in Q2, with no recession on the radar.
Signs of exhaustion
The tape shows fatigue. Silver's 14-day relative strength index sank toward 30 late in June — a level many traders read as oversold — before the metal bounced about 2.4% on Tuesday. That leaves open whether June's plunge was a fundamental repricing or a positioning-driven overshoot.
Technicians are watching the round number. FXEmpire's Christopher Lewis notes silver is trying to reclaim the $60 level, a psychologically significant figure, while a break below $57 could send it drifting toward $50 over the longer term.
Trading involves risk.
Risk Disclaimer
