Silver slipped about 1% to near $61.80 on Monday, ending a four-day advance as traders booked profits before this week's FOMC minutes. Softer Fed rate expectations and falling oil prices are easing two of the pressures that hurt the metal last month, leaving the pullback looking short-lived.
Silver has paused its recovery, but the case for a deeper slide looks thinner than Monday's price action suggests. The metal fell about 1% to near $61.80 in the Asian session, reversing course after rising for four consecutive trading days. Traders booked gains ahead of Wednesday's Federal Reserve minutes, yet two of the bigger pressures that weighed on the metal last month are now fading.
Softer Fed bets support the metal
A modest pullback in expected Federal Reserve rate increases after last Thursday's Nonfarm Payrolls report is seen as supportive for silver. According to the CME FedWatch tool, the probability of at least one more hike by the end of September stands at 53.2%, down from 59.4% a week earlier.
That matters because silver offers no yield. When rate expectations rise, cash and bonds look more attractive; when they soften, precious metals usually get room to stabilise. Investors will watch Wednesday's minutes from the June meeting for how strongly policymakers debated another move.
Falling oil eases inflation pressure
The bigger cushion may come from crude. During Asian trading, Brent Crude was down 0.5% around $71.80, hovering near the five-month low of $70.26 recorded on Thursday. The move followed OPEC+ agreeing to raise August output targets by 188,000 barrels per day.
Analysts at Citi expect Brent to retreat to $60 by year-end as Hormuz disruptions fade and shipping flows normalise. Silver suffered when oil's earlier spike revived inflation fears, so a calmer energy market gives investors a reason to resist selling every rebound.
Chart stays fragile below the 20-day EMA
Silver remains technically fragile. XAG/USD is trading near $61.94, below its 20-day EMA around $63.53, the level bulls need to reclaim. A daily close above it could open a recovery toward the June 22 peak at $67.17, then $70.00.
On the downside, the June 24 low at $55.63 is the key floor, and a break below it could signal a fresh leg lower. Until then, silver stays caught between profit-taking and a macro backdrop that is slowly turning less hostile.
Sources: TradingPedia, Invezz
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