Metals Focus and the Silver Institute forecast a 46.3 million-ounce silver deficit for 2026, but 86% of that shortfall depends on American investors buying 39.9 million more ounces of coins and bars than in 2025. US Mint data through June shows that buying running below last year's pace, while silver itself closed Monday at $65.90, far under the above-$110 levels the forecast assumes will lure those buyers back.
A deficit built on one demand line
The 2026 forecast marks the sixth consecutive annual shortfall for silver. Coin and net bar demand is projected at 257.6 million ounces for 2026, up from 217.7 million ounces in 2025, an increase of roughly 18%. That extra 39.9 million ounces of physical investment demand equals 86% of the entire forecast deficit. In other words, the balance holds only if ordinary investors buy that much more silver than they did last year.
The survey names the United States specifically. Physical investment rose 13% in 2025, with the US as the only market where it fell — American investment almost halved to its lowest level since at least the 2008 financial crisis. The forecast still expects US coin and bar demand to rise 57% this year, but only if silver revisits its early-2026 levels above $110, and briefly above $120, to draw retail buyers back in.
What the coin channel shows so far
US Mint data running through June puts the channel on pace to annualize near 9.6 million ounces, against 11.57 million ounces for all of 2025 and 24.3 million ounces in 2024. Dealer premiums tell the same story: the lowest tracked premium on a one-ounce Silver Eagle averaged 6.87% in August, down from 8.48% in July, even as spot silver rose 16.5% that month. Premiums fall when coins are easy to find.
Meanwhile the metal that did arrive came through a different door. The iShares Silver Trust held about 493.9 million ounces on August 28, up from 479.8 million ounces at the end of June. But exchange-traded fund flows sit on their own line in the survey's balance, forecast separately at 30 million ounces, so those inflows cannot fill the coin-and-bar shortfall the deficit depends on.
The rate outlook is driving the price for now
Silver has taken its direction this week from the rate outlook rather than the metal itself. Friday's August payrolls report came in far stronger than expected, at 162,000 jobs against forecasts near 56,000, which lifted the odds of a rate increase at the September 16 meeting to around 58%, from roughly 50% before the release. Producer prices land on Thursday and consumer prices on Friday.
Source: Investing.com
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