Sui faces a 13.72 million token unlock worth $9.76 million on August 1, arriving while SUI trades almost exactly at the lows of a two-month range. Open Interest and spot CVD are both sliding while the funding rate has stayed positive, a mix that showed short-term sentiment was bearish but that aggressive short selling has not yet commenced.
SUI fell 8.76% over the past week and slid a further 1.43% in the past 24 hours. Bitcoin, by comparison, was up 0.5% in 24 hours.
A token unlock of 13.72 million SUI, worth $9.76 million, lands on August 1. The altcoin meets it while trading at the lows of its consolidation range.
Derivatives data reads bearish, but shorts have not piled in
Coinalyze data showed the spot CVD for the altcoin has been in decline over the past two days. Open Interest also slid lower as prices fell from $0.72, but the funding rate remained positive.
That mix showed short-term market sentiment was bearish, while aggressive short selling has not yet commenced. Negative funding rates and rising Open Interest could lead to a price bounce and a short squeeze.
More than half the vesting schedule still ahead
The August unlock is not the first. Over the past 30 days, 22.76 million tokens have already been released in four events.
Unlocks signal supply pressure and potential short-term selling as the tokens become available to early contributors. Moreover, only 40.6% of the vesting schedule is complete, which means more unlocks follow.
The levels traders are watching
The 1-day swing structure was firmly bearish. That latest impulse move ran from $1.42 down to $0.65 across May and early June, setting the stage for a potential bounce into the Fibonacci golden pocket between $1.12 and $1.25 — the 61.8%-78.6% retracement levels.
Two months of consolidation produced a range between $0.70 and $0.77, with SUI sitting at its lows at the time of writing. A liquidity sweep toward $0.69 has occurred in recent hours, and another is possible in the coming days if the altcoin does not react bullishly soon.
AMBCrypto’s analysis put the range highs around $0.775 as the upside level for swing traders, with the range formation invalidated on an H4 session close below $0.692. Flipping the long-term trend bullish, by its reading, needs a breakout past $1.42.
Source: AMBCrypto
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