The U.S. National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration puts the odds above 90% that this year's El Niño becomes "very strong," possibly the most intense in nearly 80 years of record-keeping. The UN World Food Programme estimates the event could push almost 50 million more people into acute hunger, while the Panama Canal Authority has already tightened ship-loading limits as a prolonged dry spell threatens one of the world's key trade routes.
Warmer-than-normal sea surface temperatures in the tropical Pacific have set up what forecasters now expect to be one of the strongest El Niño events on record this year. NOAA gives the event a greater than 90% probability of becoming "very strong" in the second half of the year, and the agency says it could rank as the strongest since record-keeping began almost 80 years ago.
Scientists call the pattern unprecedented
University of California climate scientist Daniel Swain said, according to CNN: "This is a genuinely remarkable event." Swain added that current readings are already at record-breaking or record-tying levels and are expected to climb further.
Scientists reserve the term "Super El Niño" for events where temperatures rise at least 2 degrees Celsius above average, as happened in 1982-83, 1997-98, 2015-16 and 2023-24. No previous strong El Niño has developed against a background climate this warm, which makes the impact harder to predict.
Food security and trade routes under strain
The event has already delayed planting seasons and disrupted crop growth across Central America and Southeast Asia because of lower-than-usual rainfall and above-average temperatures. The UN World Food Programme estimates El Niño could push almost 50 million more people worldwide into acute hunger, an increase of about one-fifth over current levels.
Panama, one of the rainiest countries on Earth, is experiencing a prolonged dry period that threatens shipping through the Panama Canal. The Panama Canal Authority has imposed stricter limits on how heavily loaded ships can be while crossing amid concerns over the dry spell.
Worst-case scenarios remain uncertain
A worst-case Super El Niño could bring drought, shocks to global food supply chains, wildfires, excess rainfall, higher coal consumption, grid failures, declining fish stocks, heightened tension over agricultural inputs, more heat illness and even civil conflict, according to The Guardian. Poorer regions that lack the capacity to secure alternative water, food and energy supplies are expected to bear the heaviest impact.
NOAA forecasters caution that a record-strong El Niño does not guarantee worse outcomes in every region it typically affects, since existing models may not hold up against an event without historical precedent.
Source: Oilprice.com
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