TD Cowen analyst Jaret Seiberg says a Democratic sweep of Congress would end the CLARITY Act's chances for the next two years. His election-day note also says Democrats could block Trump's picks for the SEC and CFTC. Bitcoin traded near $77,500 on Tuesday afternoon.
A Democratic sweep of Congress would end the CLARITY Act's chances for the next two years, TD Cowen Washington analyst Jaret Seiberg wrote in an election-day note to clients and Bitcoin Magazine. TD Cowen agrees with polls and prediction markets that Democrats are likely to take both chambers.
Seiberg ties the outlook to oversight. According to Seiberg: "Democrats will likely investigate Trump including his crypto entanglements." He sees this as souring the political environment for crypto.
The bill has a January deadline
The market structure bill passed the House 294-134 in July 2025. It then failed a Senate cloture vote 49-50 on Sept. 15. If it does not pass before the new Congress convenes on Jan. 3, it dies and must be reintroduced.
Sen. Angela Alsobrooks, a CLARITY negotiator, has said the bill could pass before January. If it fails in that window, she doubts a Democratic-controlled Congress will make it a priority.
Senate control is the bigger prize
The note treats the Senate as the bigger prize. A Democratic majority could block Trump's nominees and use that power to force him to fill Democratic seats on the FDIC, SEC and CFTC. Senate control would also elevate Sen. Elizabeth Warren to chair the Banking Committee.
Bitcoin holds near $77,500
Bitcoin traded near $77,500 Tuesday afternoon eastern time, up from a dip to $76,300 in the morning.
Prediction markets on Kalshi give Democrats a 94% chance at the House and 74% at the Senate, so much of Seiberg's scenario is in the price. The lame-duck session is not priced.
Meanwhile, the CFTC moved without Congress on Tuesday to clear equity perpetual futures for U.S. exchanges.
Source: Bitcoin Magazine
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