USD/CAD rallied to 1.3929 today, running straight into a resistance cluster formed by a key retracement level and the 100-day moving average. Sellers leaned against the zone and pushed the pair back down, leaving buyers still short of confirming a breakout.
USD/CAD extended its rally off last week's lows to a fresh high of 1.3929. The move tapped the 38.2% retracement of the recent decline at 1.39292. Just above sits the 100-day moving average at 1.3932, less than three pips away.
Sellers defend the resistance cluster
That tight overlap turned the zone into a clear battleground between buyers and sellers. On today's test, sellers leaned against the level and the price rotated lower, with USD/CAD now trading at 1.3920.
A move above a technical level isn't enough on its own — staying above it is what confirms a breakout. For buyers, clearing both the retracement and the moving average, and holding above them, would mark a positive step.
What comes next for buyers and sellers
If buyers push through, the next target becomes the swing area between 1.3948 and 1.39687. A break above that area would open the door toward the 50% retracement at 1.39901, the 1.4000-1.4004 zone, and then the 61.8% retracement at 1.40510.
Sellers, meanwhile, still need downside momentum to regain control. A move back below 1.39013 would begin to weaken the bullish run, putting the rising 100-hour moving average at 1.38612 in view as the next downside target. Below that, the 200-hour and 200-day moving averages, both near 1.3832, form another significant support area.
Staying above those levels keeps the broader structure tilted toward buyers. A break below both moving averages, however, would shift the bias more decisively in the sellers' favor.
Source: Investinglive
Trading involves risk.
Risk Disclaimer
