Venezuela's crude production surpassed one million barrels per day in June 2026, a 17.6% jump from a year earlier, as sanctions relief and Middle East supply disruptions push output higher. Chevron plans to grow its Venezuelan output up to 50% by 2028, but one Rice University Baker Institute estimate puts the cost of restoring the country's oil sector to historic levels at up to $100 billion and at least a decade of work.
Venezuela's crude oil production surpassed one million barrels per day in June 2026, a 17.6% increase over the same month in 2025. The gain comes as conflict in the Middle East disrupts traffic through the Strait of Hormuz, tightening global petroleum supply and adding urgency to Venezuela's recovery.
Output still far below historic highs
The June total is still less than half the 2.1 million barrels per day Venezuela pumped a decade earlier. Production bottomed in July 2020, during the pandemic, at 392,000 barrels per day, far below the country's 1970 peak.
That peak reached 3.75 million barrels per day in 1970. Output had already slipped to around one million barrels per day by the end of 2018, before President Trump imposed strict sanctions in early 2019.
Rebuilding could take a decade
Industry estimates for repairing Venezuela's corroded oil infrastructure run as high as $220 billion. Francisco J Monaldi of Rice University's Baker Institute puts the figure closer to $100 billion and says it would take at least a decade to lift output back above two million barrels per day.
He argues the rule of law cannot take hold without a return to democracy, and reforms interim president Delcy Rodriguez signed into law on July 8, 2026 still leave the oil minister broad discretion over tax rates and contracts. Caracas also has a history of nationalizing oil assets under Hugo Chavez starting in 2007. That uncertainty is why big producers remain wary of committing fresh investment.
Chevron leans on existing cash flow
Chevron, one of the few majors still operating in Venezuela, plans to grow its output there by up to 50% between now and the end of 2028, funded by cash flow from its existing joint ventures rather than new outside capital. That path would take Chevron's Venezuelan output to about 420,000 barrels per day by 2028. That would be up from the 280,000 barrels per day it currently produces across three joint ventures.
The Strait of Hormuz carries roughly one-fifth of the world's hydrocarbon supply, and its disruption is already pulling more barrels out of South America. U.S. imports of Venezuelan crude reached 471,000 barrels per day in May 2026.
That volume was nearly four times the 118,000 barrels per day imported in May 2025. It marks the highest total since January 2019, when 561,000 barrels per day was shipped.
Source: Oilprice.com
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