XRP exchange-traded funds have gathered $1.51 billion since launching in November 2025, far below the $4 billion to $8 billion that JPMorgan and Standard Chartered forecast for the funds' first year. A sharp drop in XRP's price and thin institutional demand have kept the funds well off that pace, leaving passage of the CLARITY Act as the main hope for a turnaround.
XRP ETFs have taken in $1.51 billion since their November 2025 launch, well short of the $4 billion to $8 billion that JPMorgan and Standard Chartered forecast for the funds' first year of trading.
Forecasts Built on Bitcoin's Playbook
In January 2025, JPMorgan projected that spot XRP ETFs could gather $4 billion to $8 billion within six to twelve months, basing the estimate on Bitcoin's funds absorbing about 6% of Bitcoin's market cap in their first year, roughly $108 billion, and Ethereum's funds taking in about 3%. In April 2025, Standard Chartered's Geoffrey Kendrick projected the same $4 billion to $8 billion range. However, both banks assumed the wealth managers and institutions who filled Bitcoin's ETFs would also buy XRP's, an assumption no research had tested.
Monthly Flows Reveal the Shortfall
The funds took in $666.61 million in their first month and $499.91 million in December, a pace that would have reached roughly $7 billion in a year. But the funds gathered just $15.59 million in January and $58.09 million in February, then saw a net $31.16 million in outflows in March, the only losing month in the funds' history.
Inflows rebounded to $131.94 million in May, the best month of the year, as the CLARITY Act, a bill that would classify XRP as a commodity under federal law, looked closest to passing, before slowing to $27.29 million in July, a month with zero flows on 11 of its 22 trading days. Meanwhile, XRP now trades at roughly half what it did at launch, so the funds hold just $988.78 million of the $1.51 billion investors put in.
Institutions Stayed on the Sidelines
Only 16% of XRP ETF assets were tied to institutional filers at the end of last year, according to Bloomberg Intelligence, and Goldman Sachs, the largest disclosed institutional holder with a $154 million position, sold out completely in Q1. Solana's ETFs saw a similar shortfall against their own forecast, but institutions held roughly half of Solana's fund assets against XRP's 16%, partly because Bitwise's Solana staking fund targets rewards above 7% a year, a yield XRP's funds cannot offer since the XRP Ledger has no staking.
The CLARITY Act Remains the Key Catalyst
To reach even $4 billion, XRP ETFs would need every remaining month to beat November's record. Standard Chartered has cut its 2026 XRP price forecast from $8 to $2.80, and JPMorgan has not published a revision.
Ripple argued on its blog in April that the forecast has not been tested by a full bull cycle. The bigger money still waits on the CLARITY Act, which would give XRP the legal classification that pension funds, insurers, and bank asset managers need before they can hold it.
Source: 24/7 Wall St.
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