XRP jumped 9% in a single session on Sept. 21 before giving back some gains the next day, as fresh ETF inflows and improving technicals revived talk of a strong October. Historical data on XRP's own October performance is mixed, and the $1.50 area remains a key reference point heading into the fourth quarter.
XRP climbed from roughly $1.41 to $1.54 on Sept. 21, gaining almost 9% in a single session, before surrendering part of the advance on Sept. 22. Traders are now weighing whether the move marks the start of a broader recovery or another short-term rebound.
ETF inflows lift the broader market
The rally came as capital returned to crypto markets. According to SoSoValue data cited in market reports, US-listed spot crypto ETFs recorded more than $1.9 billion in net inflows over a 24-hour period. Bitcoin accounted for approximately $1.36 billion of the total, with other digital assets also attracting fresh capital.
XRP's recovery has also improved its short-term technical picture, with the token testing a descending trendline that has limited several recovery attempts since the August peak. Some momentum indicators have started to improve, though derivatives positioning remains less decisive, suggesting traders have become more constructive without establishing a broadly bullish stance.
Will there be an "Uptober"?
Bitcoin's recent weakness has pressured altcoins, but traders are increasingly looking to the fourth quarter and the historical tendency for stronger crypto-market performance in October. That has revived the "Uptober" narrative, with some market participants expecting September weakness to give way to a stronger October.
However, historical data offers a more complicated picture for XRP specifically. One analysis of the token's historical returns put the median October performance at approximately -1.79%. As a result, seasonal trends alone provide limited evidence for what XRP could do next month, leaving the recent rebound as the more immediate factor.
The US regulatory backdrop adds another consideration. The Senate's failure to advance the CLARITY Act through a procedural vote on Sept. 16 removed one potential near-term catalyst for the broader US crypto market, though it does not eliminate the chance of future progress.
XRP's longer-term chart
XRP's weekly chart also drew attention after the end of a roughly five-week consolidation period. The token gained about 5.5% over the week and briefly reached $1.57 before settling back into the $1.51-$1.54 area.
Technical trader Peter Brandt has presented a substantially higher long-term scenario for XRP, identifying $5.40 as a potential target based on the asset's historical chart structure — a gain of around 260% from the approximately $1.50 level. His chart places XRP around $1.49 while showing the token consolidating below its 18-month moving average, which sits near $1.88.
A sustained move through nearby resistance could strengthen the recovery narrative, while failure to maintain the recent gains would leave XRP within the broader consolidation that has characterized its recent price action.
Source: U.Today
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