Bybit's stablecoin-margined XRP book overtook Binance's for the first time in the snapshots CryptoQuant has tracked, with about $43 million more leverage sitting on Bybit as of July 31. XRP trades near $1.03, and total XRP derivatives open interest of $2.36 billion is more than six times the token's spot volume — a gap that leaves the market watching which exchange's book gives way first.
Bybit's stablecoin-margined XRP open interest climbed to about $229 million on July 31. That's roughly $43 million more than Binance's $186 million in the same contract type, according to CryptoQuant data. XRP trades near $1.03, about 3% above the $1 level that has become the market's most closely watched threshold.
Binance carried more stablecoin-margined open interest than Bybit in every prior snapshot tracked — $222 million against $195 million in March, and $205 million against $185 million in June. The July 31 reading flips that pattern, with Bybit taking the lead for the first time in the tracked snapshots.
Leverage split raises spillover risk
Lower open interest on one venue means less leverage sitting there to get forcibly closed during a sharp move. But if Bybit's book stays larger while Binance's shrinks, a forced liquidation on one exchange can spread through arbitrage and market-maker activity, carrying the price move across other venues.
Glassnode's Aug. 5 data put Bybit funding at plus 0.001% and Binance at plus 0.003%, with the open-interest-weighted total across venues near 0.002%, close to flat. CoinGlass puts total XRP derivatives open interest near $2.36 billion, more than six times the token's roughly $379 million in 24-hour spot volume.
Assuming 45% of Bybit's book is directional and half of that gets forced closed in a break, roughly $52 million in notional would be vulnerable. A cascade scenario of 65% directional and 75% forced-closed pushes the figure toward $112 million.
Bull and bear paths split on the $1 test
The $1.05 to $1.10 range became a key support zone in late June. A break below $1.05 would turn focus toward $1.00, while a reclaim of $1.18 to $1.30 would be needed to break the broader bearish structure. CryptoSlate's Aug. 6 tracking of Polymarket odds showed traders pricing a 71.5% chance XRP touches $1 in August, compared with 18% for a move to $1.20.
Bulls point to XRP holding $1.04 support while open interest keeps falling on both exchanges and funding stays flat. A reclaim of the 20-day and 50-day averages near $1.08 and $1.12 opens a path to $1.20, with room toward $1.37 to $1.47 if the move gains spot participation.
The bear case has XRP losing $1.04, then $1, while Bybit's open interest holds near current levels even as Binance's keeps falling — a path that could send the token toward the $0.95 to $0.97 zone. Binance's own deleveraging looks genuine, but the broader picture for XRP still hinges on how Bybit's larger book behaves from here.
Source: CryptoSlate
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