XRP trades near $1.13 after losing about half its value since January, and a return to $2 would take a 77% climb. Analysts still expect the token to finish 2026 above $2, but the path runs through the stalled CLARITY Act and a wall of sellers below that level.
XRP now trades at $1.13, which puts a return to $2 at a 77% climb. That is not a far-off number: the token held $2 at the start of the year, so the target is a level it has been trying to reclaim ever since.
A six-month slide from $2.41
XRP started 2026 by climbing to $2.41 in January, and that marked the high point. The price slipped under $2 in February and kept falling until it reached $1.11.
The coin then spent the first and second quarter trying to recover. XRP climbed back to the $1.50 level four times between February and May, but the bears turned back every rally. By late June the price had sunk to around $1.03, leaving the token down about half its value within six months.
Yet the news around XRP was mostly good through this stretch. The coin rode the momentum of its 2025 wins — the SEC settlement and the launch of spot ETFs — but handed those gains back as the wider crypto market cooled.
The CLARITY Act as catalyst
Most analysts still expect XRP to end 2026 above $2, with forecasts clustering between $2 and $4 and Bitwise predicting $4.94. Even Standard Chartered, which cut its target from $8 to $2.80 in February, expects the token to finish the year well above $2.
The CLARITY Act is the key catalyst that could trigger the move, because it would write XRP's status as a digital commodity into U.S. law and let institutions that avoid unsettled assets finally buy. Standard Chartered estimates the bill's passage could push XRP ETF inflows to $8 billion, over five times what the crypto ETF funds have attracted so far. XRP ETFs have pulled in around $1.49 billion since launch.
Timing may help too. July has historically been XRP's best month, averaging a 10.4% gain since 2013, and the token is already up about 8% this month.
The case against
The bill itself is the first risk. It missed the White House's July 4 deadline when the Senate left without voting, and Democrats want tighter rules on presidential crypto profits after Trump disclosed $1.4 billion in crypto income. Congress returns on July 13, but betting markets put the odds of passage this year below 40%.
Above the current price sits a wall of sellers. Millions of XRP were bought between $1.50 and $1.90 during the spring's failed rallies, and those holders could sell at break-even, forcing the price through that crowd before it can attempt $2.
The macro backdrop is the third drag. The Fed has kept rate cuts off the table while inflation looks ready to rise, and XRP usually falls whenever the broader market drops. Should the bill stall into 2027, XRP would likely spend the rest of the year stuck between $1 and $1.50.
Source: Yahoo Finance
Trading involves risk.
Risk Disclaimer
